167
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Dec 11, 2012
12/12
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david, i want to drill down on even over this past weekend we heard the fiscal cliff is a cliff. no parachute. bad things happen if we go over it. i have never been persuaded of that. the payroll tax is likely to go up either way. the taxes in the healthcare bill will kickback in no matter what. sequestration could be remedied. is it in your view a slope, a cliff, what is the metaphor, and is there hysteria attached to this that is excessive? >> cliff is a problematic metaphor because it is not like the debt ceiling. it's not even like the government shutdown. you don't necessarily have an enormous market reaction. this is not like the country defaulting on its debt. but it's serious for two reasons. we don't know what the reaction could be. there it is a chance that it could spook the markets. the second thing, the combine pieces of this passage is a combined 4% of the gdp. if they went into affect and remained in affect not just for a couple of weeks but for the full year it's hard to see how the economy avoids a recession next year. it's not guaranteed but it's more than enoug
david, i want to drill down on even over this past weekend we heard the fiscal cliff is a cliff. no parachute. bad things happen if we go over it. i have never been persuaded of that. the payroll tax is likely to go up either way. the taxes in the healthcare bill will kickback in no matter what. sequestration could be remedied. is it in your view a slope, a cliff, what is the metaphor, and is there hysteria attached to this that is excessive? >> cliff is a problematic metaphor because it...
95
95
Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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the fiscal cliff is bad, but not irretrievable. you can go into january and still put the pieces back together. as you know, defaulting on the debt is irretrievable thing. that's the economic equivalent of a nuclear weapon. that is a big dynamite compared to the fiscal cliff crew having said that, as they get to the year end, i think they'll say we'll vote to extend middle class tax cuts. our leverage is greater because it's the nuclear bomb so they can increase their leverage as they move toward a vote. we may end up into january early february negotiating again about a debt ceilingle. >> that would be very hazardous. an economic nuclear deterrent is only effective if you're ready to set it off. i'm not saying there aren't tea party republicans that would be willing to tank the economy on this, but i think republicans really are overplaying their hand if they think they're going to get a lot of leverage out of this debt ceiling. they may think that. but people remember that episode more than a year ago and it really backfired. it
the fiscal cliff is bad, but not irretrievable. you can go into january and still put the pieces back together. as you know, defaulting on the debt is irretrievable thing. that's the economic equivalent of a nuclear weapon. that is a big dynamite compared to the fiscal cliff crew having said that, as they get to the year end, i think they'll say we'll vote to extend middle class tax cuts. our leverage is greater because it's the nuclear bomb so they can increase their leverage as they move...
102
102
Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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treaty about disability or what they're saying by the fiscal cliff. we're seeing an important shift in their strategy. i think at the end of the day john boehner is going to decide it makes more sense to pass the senate bill, extending the tax cut to 98% saying to the public at large we're not going to deny you that, but we're not going to pass the debt ceiling increase. on that they'll hang tougher seeking to extract something from the white house. >> i agree with half of that. i think they're going to wait for the debt ceiling crisis that they're going to create with their leverage. but it seems to me that they have more incentive to blame the democrats for rising taxes on everybody, and then come back and pass that middle class tax cut. i think we're going to see the sun setting of the bush tax cuts. i just don't see how the tea partyers essentially can do a preemptive basically pre- preemptive tax cuts before the taxes go back up. >> eliot: charles, do you agree with sam? once the tax cuts have expired maybe they pass the tax cut for 98% but then
treaty about disability or what they're saying by the fiscal cliff. we're seeing an important shift in their strategy. i think at the end of the day john boehner is going to decide it makes more sense to pass the senate bill, extending the tax cut to 98% saying to the public at large we're not going to deny you that, but we're not going to pass the debt ceiling increase. on that they'll hang tougher seeking to extract something from the white house. >> i agree with half of that. i think...